连平：从中央政治局会议看宏观经济政策走向海淘项目_优质付费资源_知识付费网课平台_创业项目_代理加盟

宏观政策和微观政策_经济宏观调控手段_宏观经济政策

CFIC指南：

对于新的政策重心，连平教授认为，如果说2017年到2018年上半年政策向紧缩方向调整，那么本次政治局会议则表明政策重心向松动方向调整。但是，政策向宽松方向调整，并不意味着会有“大水漫灌”和“大幅宽松”。

8月21日，由上海市金融业联合会、浦东新区金融服务局（上海自贸区金融服务局）、上海自贸区陆家嘴管理局、陆家嘴金融城发展局、中国金融信息中心共同主办，太平养老由保险公司协办、复旦泛海国际金融学院提供学术支持的第八期“浦江养老金融晚会”在中国金融信息中心举行。

交通银行首席经济学家连平应邀作了题为《从中央政治局会议看宏观经济政策走向》的主旨报告。

宏观经济政策_经济宏观调控手段_宏观政策和微观政策

活动现场

交通银行首席经济学家连平太平养老保险股份有限公司党委书记、总经理彭毅中国金融信息中心党委委员、副总裁王艳、复旦大学泛海国际金融学院EMBA项目主任、太平养老保险股份公司总经理办公室领导出席活动。此外，来自政府及监管部门、金融界、企业界、商会、协会、高校、科研机构等近500位嘉宾齐聚一堂。

嘉宾致辞：

经济宏观调控手段_宏观政策和微观政策_宏观经济政策

中国金融信息中心党委委员、副总裁张凤鸣

张凤鸣介绍，中国金融信息中心是新华社直属事业单位，是新华社与上海市的战略合作项目。财经信息中心建设与新华社创建世界一流新型世界性新闻机构的战略目标。

他说，金融中心的背后一定是思想中心、信息中心和创新中心。 “浦江养老金融夜话”系列论坛是中国金融信息中心联合众多权威机构打造的思想交流、信息交流、经验分享的平台之一。迄今为止，已经举办了七届。特别感谢太平养老保险股份有限公司对本平台的大力支持。在过去的每一场讲座中，线上线下都有很好的互动。也希望这次连平教授的讲座能够让大家听得愉快，收获满满。

今年以来，中国经济金融形势发生了深刻变化。股市持续动荡，债市频频违约，外汇市场大幅贬值，P2P集中出逃，房地产交易低迷。在国内经济新旧动能转换、三降一补的关键时期，美国加息、减税和中美贸易摩擦的阴影叠加，使得内外形势动荡，充满巨大变数。因此，它对中国宏观经济发展提出了严峻挑战。

面对当前更加复杂多变的内外环境，中央政治局7月31日召开会议，提出了备受关注的六项“稳”政策，即稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资。，稳定预期。今天来到现场的连平教授在宏观经济学领域有着长期深入的研究。近年来多次出席国务院总理主持召开的专家咨询会，为高层决策提供意见和建议。他的许多作品在业界享有很高的评价。他对这次中央政治局会议也保持着高度关注。今晚，他将以“从中央政治局会议看宏观经济政策方向”为题，与大家分享交流。

复旦大学泛海国际金融学院EMBA项目主任王艳

王艳表示，复旦大学泛海国际金融学院是复旦大学、中国泛海控股集团和上海市黄浦区人民政府按照世界一流商学院标准共建的商学院，专注于关于金融研究和教育。立足国际金融视野，服务国家金融战略，培养顶尖金融人才，成就一流金融智库”为学校办学宗旨，“一流的学术研究和学科建设，一流的教学项目和高端人才人才培养、一流智库研究和社会影响力”为办学目标。学校已在全球成功招聘并组建了一支45人的团队。其中资深教授均获得世界一流企业的终身教职学校，是金融经济学各个领域的学术带头人，来自主要国际组织、政府机构和企业机构高层管理团队的实践教授、客座教授和兼职教授亲自教授学生金融实务，帮助学生融会贯通，融会贯通。行动，卓越和善良。

复旦大学泛海国际金融学院EMBA项目，学校借助复旦百年名校的各种资源，开创了iF³的理念，以金融工具聚焦金融，力求把整个项目做的更好。通过三个特点解决企业的实际问题。一是注重实训。在面试过程中，学生将被问及他们的实际需求。通过两年的学习，不断深化和解决问题，做到行动教学与理论教学并重。二是除了经验分享和案例分享，学院还提供双导师全方位指导，支持国际课程，不仅仅是简单的游学，而是针对整个课程遇到的实际问题，寻找目标国际公司，公司大家参观交流经验。同时设立移动课堂，通过课程学习和国内外知名企业的参观，共同建设这个项目。最后，除了主要课程的授课外，学院还提供复旦人文和金融实践课程。

未来，复旦大学泛海国际金融学院将与中国金融信息中心在智库建设上强强联手，合力有效解答和解决金融业发展中的重大现实问题，带动创新转型，为国家、为地方、为企业。提升业绩和实力，提升上海国际金融中心建设的影响力和话语权。

主题演讲：

宏观政策和微观政策_宏观经济政策_经济宏观调控手段

交通银行首席经济学家连平

关于连平：

连平，交通银行首席经济学家，博士，教授，博士生导师。

中国银行业协会行业发展研究委员会主任，中国首席经济学家论坛主席，国家金融与发展实验室主任，中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员、常务理事，中国科学院陆家嘴研究基地常务理事、学术委员社会科学专业，享受国务院政府特殊津贴。

主要研究领域涉及宏观经济运行与政策、国际金融和商业银行。迄今为止，在国内外各类报刊杂志发表论文500余篇，出版专着14部，主持完成国家级和省部级科研项目30余项。专着《利率市场化：谁主宰涨跌》获中国银行业发展研究优秀成果评选（2014）特等奖。荣获新浪财经2015年银行业综合评选“年度领先经济学家”。彭博社2015年中国经济预测在中资机构中排名第一。

2009年以来，5次出席国务院总理主持召开的专家企业家座谈会。

现场记录：

中共中央政治局7月31日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议作出了新的重要判断，即当前经济运行稳中有变，面临一些新目标新挑战，外部环境发生显着变化。会议提出了一系列新的政策要求。宏观政策方面，要提高政策的前瞻性、灵活性和有效性。财政政策要在扩大内需和结构调整中发挥更大作用。要控制好货币供应总闸，保持流动性合理充裕。会议提出“六稳”：稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期。同时，会议要求补齐短板，加大基础设施领域补短板力度；去杠杆宏观经济政策，把握力度和节奏；扩大对外开放，出台一批行之有效的重大改革举措；房地产市场要促进供需平衡，健全市场秩序，坚决遏制房价上涨。

对于新的政策重心，连平教授认为，如果说2017年到2018年上半年政策向紧缩方向调整，那么本次政治局会议则表明政策重心向松动方向调整。但是，政策向宽松方向调整，并不意味着会有“大水漫灌”和“大幅宽松”。在政策层面，“变中求稳”的意愿十分明显，主要体现在“六稳”上。同时，政策的灵活性和针对性突出。灵活体现在把握好去杠杆的力度和节奏，针对性体现在基础设施补短板、遏制房价上涨、出台有效开放措施等方面。

外部环境不确定性急剧上升

连平教授认为，当前外部环境复杂。 2018年上半年，全球经济面临的风险和困难逐渐增多。主要经济体增长分化，通胀上升，货币政策不同程度正常化，贸易保护主义猖獗。美国贸易保护主义抬头。全球贸易前景不确定性急剧上升，世界经济增长前景堪忧。当前，发达经济体货币政策正在正常化，金融危机后持续多年的流动性宽松局面正在发生变化，不断向收缩态势转变。当前，新兴经济体发展遭遇挫折，土耳其爆发严重通胀、货币大幅贬值等不利影响正在蔓延。同时，中东地缘政治风险加剧，影响全球市场稳定。伊朗受到美国的经济制裁，有加剧矛盾的可能。

连平教授还解读了中美贸易摩擦。对于特朗普对华实施贸易保护主义政策的动机，连平认为主要有三点：一是要求中国减少对美贸易顺差；二是要求中国减少对美贸易顺差。美国之间的技术产品贸易制约着中国高科技的发展；三是拖累中国经济增长，引发金融动荡，影响中国社会稳定。目前，美国国内遏制中国崛起的舆论十分强烈。

连平教授认为，对于美国的倒行逆施，中方必须以合理、有利、克制的方式进行反击。首先，要以战降损，抓增量。考虑到美国对华“战略围堵”的力度越来越大，特朗普显然有不战而胜之意。中方不能对美国的贸易保护政策抱有任何幻想。必须进行精准打击，给予强力反击，目的是减少损失。当然，要控制打击的力度。中国在着手布局应对措施的同时，可以通过加大增量来减少顺差。二要边打边谈，守住底线：反击要遵循“合理、有益、克制”的原则，积极研究与国际接轨的反威慑、反报复经济体制，高举打着自由贸易的旗号，与欧盟等经济体开展合作。应对国际贸易自由化氛围的形成。守住三个底线：不以人民币大幅升值为代价，不以贸易完全平衡为目标，不积极向非贸易领域扩张。总之，最终的影响程度取决于“打的效果”和“说话的能力”，结果还是通过谈判解决问题。

连平教授表示，必须正视中国应对贸易战的能力和基础。中国拥有潜力巨大的消费市场，拥有近14亿人口，人均GDP近万美元，零售额与美国持平，拥有最大的汽车市场；而中国作为全球最大的消费市场，对外资具有很强的吸引力，相互贸易可以不断扩大。中国也是世界第一大出口国，制造体系完善，生产能力强，应对能力强。中国需要进一步扩大对外开放，特别是加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易往来，逐步形成全面贸易伙伴关系；金砖国家范围扩大，贸易进一步发展，培育更多贸易伙伴。同时，要加快贸易结构调整，进一步降低对少数国家的过度出口依赖，实现创新驱动、产业升级、市场多元化、区域化的贸易新格局。和产业结构平衡。此外，还要注意持续推进减税降费，降低企业税收和财务成本。企业内部结构也要进行调整，以降本增效。

连平教授认为，未来可能影响中美贸易战发展的国际变数很多。比如，欧盟、周边国家、中国、日本等国家对美国的反击，都会影响到美国的贸易，美国贸易逆差可能发生的变化。美元的进一步走强和人民币的贬值一定程度上会在一定程度上抵消美国贸易制裁的影响。同时，美伊冲突的蔓延导致美国与盟友的矛盾扩大，对全球油价造成影响。此外，贸易战、货币汇率波动、油价震荡等因素引发的美国经济增长和物价变化也值得关注。同时，特朗普“通俄门”事件的发酵可能对其政策产生影响，尤其是共和党态度的转变。此外，美国中期选举格局正在发生微妙变化，也可能影响中美贸易战的发展。

上半年我国经济运行稳中有变

连平教授认为，上半年我国经济运行总体平稳，主要宏观调控指标运行在合理区间，经济结构继续优化，防范化解金融风险初见成效，生态环境有所改善，但也存在一些问题。

一是工业生产略有放缓。上半年，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.7%，增速比一季度回落0.1个百分点。 7月份，工业增加值同比增长6.0%，与6月份持平，工业生产仍在放缓。二是投资增速在低位运行。在财政支出放缓、PPP项目清盘、资金来源受压的情况下，基建投资增速大幅回落。与此同时，消费增速温和放缓。上半年，社会消费品零售总额180018亿元，同比增长9.4%，增速比一季度回落0.4个百分点。 7月份，社会消费品零售总额30734亿元，同比增长8.8%，增速比上月回落0.2个百分点。其中，餐饮收入同比增长9.4%，商品零售额同比增长8.7%，均有所放缓。此外，货物进出口顺差收窄。上半年，按美元计算，货物进出口总额同比增长15.9%。其中，出口增长12.9%；进口增长19.9%。进出口顺差1385.76亿美元，同比下降22.19%。贸易结构进一步优化。一般贸易进出口增长20.6%，占进出口总额的比重为59%，比上年同期提高2.3个百分点。 7月份，进出口增速均超预期。然而，中美贸易战不断升级。尤其是中美之间160亿美元商品的关税也于近期正式实施，进出口仍存在隐忧。

连平教授也提到了一些值得关注的变化。一是经常项目顺差明显收窄。由于货物贸易顺差大幅收窄，服务贸易逆差继续扩大，全年经常项目顺差可能大幅收窄甚至出现逆差，净出口拉动增长的作用可能明显减弱. 我国经常项目持续巨额顺差或进入拐点，其影响需关注。二是社会融资规模收缩过快。上半年累计新增委托贷款、信托贷款、未贴现银行承兑汇票同比减少3.7万亿元，累计新增社会融资规模9.1万亿元，降幅明显同比增加2.03万亿元。同时，存贷款增速差距扩大反映出经济增长压力加大。长期以来，我国融资方式以间接融资为主，存贷款增速一直领先于GDP增速。存贷款增速差距扩大在一定程度上反映了经济增长面临的压力。

下半年宏观经济政策走向

连平教授对宏观经济和金融政策做了一些展望。

在财政政策方面，连平教授认为宏观经济政策，下半年财政政策将更加积极，财政支出进度将加快，财政政策对经济稳增长和结构调整的促进作用将进一步增强。得到有效发挥。中央政治局会议提出的“补短板”首先指向基础设施建设，这意味着基础设施建设将成为政策对冲短期经济风险的重要手段，或将成为稳定经济的重要手段。下半年开工。

对于货币政策，连平教授认为，货币政策将在保持稳健中性基调的同时，从宽松上进行调整，并加大针对性支持力度。未来一段时间，我们可以适度看好市场整体流动性形势。不排除年内再次实施定向降准，继续压低银行负债成本。进一步加大对小微企业、“三农”和普惠金融的精准支持力度。

连平教授还谈到金融支持实体经济。他认为，要适当增加银行授信额度，提高信贷增速；保持非信贷融资合理适度发展。加大资产证券化力度，以存量资产证券化为信贷释放腾出空间，推动非标资产向标准化资产转化。转型; 支持债券市场稳定发展，建立健全信用衍生品体系；稳妥有序推进地方政府债务去杠杆。对同业业务和非标投资实行差异化监管要求。

连平教授对当前金融紧缩趋于缓解的现象进行了解读。近期央行定向降准等一系列支持措施或将对下半年信贷投放产生一定程度的积极影响。下半年，居民中长期贷款将受到部分非一线城市购房需求的刺激，预计大幅下降的可能性不大。受地方政府债务置换影响，公共信贷增幅将“虚低”。考虑到央行在定向信贷支持方面将适度放宽政策，对冲后社融增速下滑幅度或将放缓。预计下半年信贷增速可能保持在13.0%左右，全年信贷增量在16万亿左右；社会融资增速可能在10%左右，社会融资增量在17.5万亿左右。

宏观经济展望

连平教授认为，三大需求适度稳定。

出口仍存在较大不确定性。预计年初以来欧洲经济复苏势头减弱；中美贸易摩擦的负面影响可能加大。在此背景下，预计下半年出口增速可能低于上半年。

投资增速仍将在低位运行。随着PPP项目清理工作的完成，预计未来项目库的数量和数量将趋于稳定甚至回升，有助于稳定下半年的基建投资。加快财政资金调拨支出，盘活财政存量资金，提高资金使用效率，改善基础设施投资资金来源。下半年基建投资增速可能触底，全年增速预计在12%左右，明显低于上年。下半年制造业投资增速将有所提升，年均增长6%左右。房地产开发投资增速可能从上半年的高增长回落，预计全年增速在6%-8%左右，与上年持平或略有上升。

总体看，全年固定资产投资增长6.5%左右，基础设施投资增长8.5%左右，低于上年。

预计下半年消费将小幅回升。消费增速将略高于上半年，全年增速约为9.7%，增速低于上年。由于中国消费支出占GDP比重较低，增长空间较大。同时，随着消费促进政策的出台和服务业开放程度的提高，将为消费增长提供条件。今年促进开放、扩大进口、改善消费者福利的政策频频出台，效应不断释放，将拉动消费。降低和取消部分消费品进口关税，大幅降低整车和零部件进口关税，以扩大进口留住消费端。个税改革的稳步推进，将减轻个人税负，对消费起到积极作用。

连平教授认为，中国经济增长的韧性正在增强。主要体现在供给侧结构性改革去产能任务基本完成，部分行业基本出清，增长动能回升；新产业、新业态、新模式蓬勃发展，对经济的支撑作用逐步增强。；出口对制造业有拉动作用，拉动制造业生产和投资，稳定就业，促进消费增长；在持续调控压力下，上半年房地产开发投资处于近三年高位，表明房地产市场需求增长潜力依然存在；民间资本流出放缓，国内投资积极性增强，带动制造业投资增长。尽管面临较为严峻的内外形势，但中国经济连续三年保持在6.7%-7%左右的增长平台，显示出中国经济强劲的韧性，预计2018年仍将保持。

连平教授认为，通胀会相对温和。 PPI与CPI剪刀差将延续至三季度，四季度收窄。在内需稳定增长的前提下，CPI未来缺乏明显反弹的动力。在当前经济环境下，工业需求不会明显走强，需求拉动PPI飙升的可能性较小。预计三季度PPI可能继续上涨，四季度回落的可能性较大。全年PPI平均涨幅在3.5%左右。

同时，经济平稳运行仍存在结构性机遇。预计2018年下半年中国经济增速将略有放缓，二、三、四季度经济增速分别为6.7%、6.6%和6.6%，全年增速将保持在约 6.7%。尽管经济增速将稳中趋缓，但仍可关注经济结构优化和质量提升带来的机遇。比如，资本与技术的结合，为创新型企业的快速发展带来机遇，为居民消费升级带来机遇，为龙头企业在产业集中度不断提升的过程中带来成长机遇。

房地产市场何去何从？

Professor Lian Ping believes that the root cause of rising housing prices lies in the imbalance between supply and demand, and the key lies in supply-side problems.

First of all, my country's land use structure is irrational. The rapid rise of housing prices is mainly concentrated in the economically developed first- and second-tier cities. Compared with international large cities, the land use structure of my country's first- and second-tier cities is obviously different. Residential land accounts for insufficient urban construction land, while industrial land accounts for too much urban construction area. . Secondly, in recent years, the supply area of construction land in my country has shown a downward trend year by year, and the area of real estate land has declined even more. From 2013 to 2017, the proportion of real estate land to the land supply area decreased year by year, respectively 27.4%, 24.8%, 22.5%, 20.8% and 19.2%. At the same time, under the dual effects of institutional and structural factors, the supply of housing in some cities has been in short supply for a long time, forming the expectation that housing prices in these cities will continue to rise sharply, so investment demand and speculative demand can gather. Rising house prices are inevitable. In addition, the shortage of housing makes the monetary factor fully reflected in the role of driving up housing prices.

The current growth rate of real estate investment exceeds market expectations. Demand for policy-based housing such as rental housing, affordable housing, co-ownership housing, and shed renovations has driven development investment. At the same time, inventory in some second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities has decreased significantly, and housing prices have risen strongly, further promoting development investment.

Professor Lian Ping believes that the real estate industry and market will return to the standard in the future. The real estate market is an important industry and plays an important role in the development of the national economy. The real estate "housing and living" is the first issue of people's livelihood. "Having a place to live" and "people living and working in peace and contentment" are also an indispensable part of the "increasing need for a better life" among the main contradictions in my country's current society. With the improvement of the level of urbanization and the growth of GDP per capita, the demand for first-time home buyers and improvements will increase, making the demand for the real estate market continue to develop. At the policy level, the 19th National Congress of last year once again clarified the positioning of "houses are for living in, not for speculation". The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed that we must resolve to solve the problems of the real estate market, resolutely curb the rise of housing prices, and at the same time accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

As for the long-term mechanism that will speed up research, Professor Lian Ping put forward four points of view. The first is to study and promote relevant tax policies. It is necessary to gradually implement and implement differently in the form of pilots in time batches and specific plans; appropriately increase the taxation of the housing stock market; research and promote the deduction of personal tax for mortgage interest. The second is to cultivate the residential rental market. Such as providing transitional and long-term housing rental service platforms; improving supporting facilities and property services; exploring innovative credit and investment and financing cooperation models for housing rental projects; reducing the cost of rental housing operating companies through tax reductions, financial subsidies, and low-price land supply. , to increase capital attractiveness. The third is to ensure the source of land supply. It is necessary to increase the land supply to hotspot areas and increase the proportion of residential land; clarify the quantitative indicators of construction sites; reform the way of land transfer; establish a mechanism for linking land supply and housing price changes. The fourth is to improve the supply mechanism of affordable housing. It is necessary to increase the proportion of monetized compensation and resettlement for shed reform houses; open up the conversion channel between affordable housing and commercial housing; promote the implementation of government purchase services or PPP models for shed reform projects.

Pay attention to the linkage effect of exchange rate fluctuations

First, marketization is the basic direction of the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Exchange rate marketization reform is one of the important goals of my country's financial reform and opening up. Second, a reasonable fluctuation range is the main feature of exchange rate marketization. Exchange rate fluctuations help to adjust international income imbalances and buffer the negative effects of external economic changes. In addition, people have long been accustomed to maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, and the "floating fear" of the exchange rate still exists, and this concept is still deeply rooted in some areas. At the same time, as my country's economy further opens to the outside world, the internationalization of the RMB and the advancement of capital and financial account convertibility will inevitably require greater flexibility in the RMB exchange rate.

Professor Lian Ping believes that the US dollar index may further rise within the year. The current economic growth momentum of the United States is good, and the employment situation continues to be at the best level in history; relatively speaking, the economic performance of Europe and Japan is relatively weak. The Fed will raise interest rates further, and the central banks of Europe and Japan will maintain a relatively loose monetary policy. Trade disputes, geopolitical conflicts, etc. further push up the dollar, and the dollar index may break through 100.

Professor Lian Ping put forward the viewpoint that the RMB equilibrium exchange rate level is a dynamic change. He believes that the equilibrium exchange rate refers to the exchange rate level that is compatible with a country's stable economic growth, full employment, and basic balance of international payments within a certain period of time. Therefore, the equilibrium exchange rate level is related to a country's specific development stage, industrial structure, trade structure, balance of payments and other factors. Along with changes in the macroeconomic operation and the balance of payments, the reasonable equilibrium level range of the RMB exchange rate will also move accordingly. Therefore, one cannot arbitrarily believe that RMB appreciation is overvalued and depreciation is undervalued, but should be judged based on changes in the reasonable equilibrium level.

Professor Lian Ping believes that there is no need to pay too much attention to the "numerical threshold". In view of the current and future period, the external environment is highly uncertain, and the RMB exchange rate, which has a relatively high degree of marketization, cannot rule out periodic large fluctuations. The current RMB exchange rate is no longer the pegged mechanism to the US dollar in the past, but has basically become a managed floating exchange rate based on supply and demand. Therefore, it is possible for the RMB exchange rate to rise faster and depreciate faster in stages due to fluctuations caused by complex factors. It is not necessary to define a certain value as an important threshold of the exchange rate, otherwise you will make the mistake of "seeking a sword in a hurry". Professor Lian Ping believes that more attention should be paid to the linkage effect and adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Because if the sharp depreciation of the exchange rate and capital outflows promote and strengthen each other, and lead to a sharp drop in domestic asset prices, it will have a relatively large negative impact on the economy. There was a similar process in my country in 2015-2016. At this time, the macro-management Strong steps must be taken to regulate and intervene.

Professor Lian Ping also mentioned that exchange rate adjustment and intervention should be viewed objectively, and exchange rate adjustment and intervention should not be demonized. First, according to the International Monetary Fund's point of view, when the exchange rate fluctuates continuously and brings strong negative effects, the authorities not only can but should intervene in it. Because the exchange rate of a country's currency fluctuates too much, it not only affects the domestic economy, but also disturbs the international economy. The key depends on the purpose of regulation and intervention. If the regulation and intervention is to obtain a certain competitive advantage from the reverse movement, then such intervention is often unacceptable by the international community; but if it is to stabilize the market and enable the international economy to Operating in a better environment, such adjustments and interventions are justifiable. The way monetary authorities and foreign exchange management departments adjust exchange rates involves multiple dimensions, including adjusting supply and demand, adjusting exchange rate mechanisms, increasing or decreasing transaction costs, directly participating in transactions, and influencing expectations. In addition, attention should be paid to the circumstances under which regulation and intervention are carried out. If there are a series of unfavorable factors in the market that lead to a sharp drop in the country's currency exchange rate in the short term, or even a serious overshoot, which will have a relatively large negative impact on the country's economy, then it is necessary for the authorities to adjust and intervene in the exchange rate.

From the perspective of the exchange rate, Professor Lian Ping believes that the RMB is expected to remain basically stable amidst two-way fluctuations and increased flexibility. The RMB exchange rate still has staged depreciation pressure. The rise of the US dollar index, the Sino-US trade conflict, the loosening of China's monetary policy, and the sharp narrowing of the current account surplus have all led to unabated pressure on the RMB to depreciate. With the increasing degree of marketization of the exchange rate, under the influence of external uncertain factors, the RMB exchange rate may also go out of the market that exceeds the general expectations of the market, and the exchange rate may be overadjusted or normal. At the same time, there is less chance of a sustained sharp depreciation. In view of my country's stable economic growth, basic balance of international payments, sound fiscal and financial conditions, low level of external debt, sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and strengthened prudent management, it is unlikely that the RMB will continue to depreciate significantly. The greater possibility is to maintain a reasonable equilibrium level of range fluctuations. However, with changes in the macro economy and the balance of payments, the reasonable equilibrium level range of the RMB exchange rate will also shift accordingly.

Finally, Professor Lian Ping proposed three major issues that need to be addressed in the future market-oriented exchange rate reform. They are: the RMB exchange rate flexibility mechanism needs to be strengthened and improved; the foreign exchange market needs to achieve a basic balance of supply and demand based on more real demand; and the market expectation management and communication capabilities need to be further improved.

经济宏观调控手段_宏观政策和微观政策_宏观经济政策